The 2024 presidential election will go down in history as one of the most eventful and unpredictable races of all time. With Donald Trump trading an easy win over Biden for a tight race against Kamala Harris, the two candidates have been trading spots at the top of the opinion polls for months. As the race nears its end, however, there is still no clear winner in the eyes of pollsters.
What are election betting odds?
Election betting odds are predictions of election outcomes based on wagers placed in betting markets. In this article, we take a look at the ever-closer survey numbers leading up to the election and gauge both candidates’ chances of winning in the context of domestic and international political events.
Last-minute Legal Ruling from federal appeals court Allows Betting On US Election. A federal appeals court declined to block a lower court’s decision that allowed betting on 2024 federal elections Wednesday, a blow to the government agency that argued doing so could undermine election integrity.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had asked the appeals court to block the prediction exchange platform Kalshi from offering “Congressional Control Contracts,” which allow buyers to bet on which political party will control the House and the Senate after the upcoming election.
ElectionBettingOdds which tracks data from five different betting sites to display a betting average, shows Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning the presidential election as of Monday. According to Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds More than two billion dollars have been bet on the election already,”
The closest race in living memory
Just several weeks to go before the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are facing off in a race that is expected to be decided by just a few percentage points.
Despite his outrageous public statements and comments by some senior Republicans that he is unfit to run for office, Donald Trump seems to have retained a strong voter base among certain Americans.
The latest polls and presidential betting odds show Trump (-105) trailing Kamala Harris (-115) by just a few percentage points. The former president is leading among several groups of voters, including those who consider migration at the southern border a major crisis and voters in battleground states like North Carolina.
For her part, Harris has had to play an enormous game of catch-up since announcing her candidacy in late July
- The current vice president has opted to do this without giving many public interviews, focusing on campaign rally appearances and a major social media push aimed at younger voters.
- The Democrat’s strategy was particularly effective in the first few weeks of her campaign, with the voter apathy directed at Biden turning into excitement.
- Her campaign is largely centered on spreading joy and returning America to traditional liberal values, with an emphasis on the rights of women and minorities.
However, despite an impressive initial performance, Harris’s popularity seems to be plateauing, with Democrat support among latino voters in particular stalling significantly.
Some voters have indicated that her policy positions are not concrete enough. This is in stark contrast to Trump, whose list of priorities – should he win the election- is easily identifiable.
At the same time, these policy positions strike many commentators and voters as radical and outrageous and may lose the Republican votes among moderate GOP supporters.
The danger of ruling out another Trump presidency
Despite the poll numbers and his 2016 victory, there is lingering disbelief in many political circles around the enduring popularity of Donald Trump – and this could cause complacency among his rivals.
Despite making virtually every political error in the book, the former president commands more than 40% of the vote, according to recent surveys. Stranger still, his extremist statements may even help to boost his popularity.
In his first presidential debate against Harris— which is likely to be the one and only time the two meet on stage—Trump launched a tirade against illegal immigrants, claiming that Haitian migrants in Ohio were eating dogs and cats.
The comment shocked and appalled Americans on both sides of the political spectrum, yet Trump’s poll numbers improved in the weeks following this outrageous utterance.
This paradoxical movement in Trump’s approval rating may or may not be a result of his comments, but it drives home the point that the former president still enjoys tremendous popularity, no matter how extreme his views may be.
Harris and her team should pay close attention to this phenomenon as they consolidate their campaign in the last few weeks before November to avoid a repeat of the 2016 election result. In that year, Trump pulled off a surprise win against Hillary Clinton despite the polls showing her in the lead by 12 points on the eve of the election.
With the polls tied in battleground states, Trump may still stand a strong chance of victory in November.
What a win for Trump or Harris could mean for the world
The geopolitical implications of the upcoming election could be huge, with international conflicts raging in Israel and Ukraine.
On the issue of Israel, both candidates have stated that the State has the right to defend itself. Where they may differ is in the unlimited support that Trump is likely to extend to the Netanyahu government. Harris is expected to take a more measured approach and push for a peace deal.
Similarly, the conflict in Ukraine may see a different resolution depending on who occupies the White House next year.
Trump has promised to end the war even before his inauguration. However, his traditional links with Russia and Vladimir Putin, in particular, have led some critics to conclude that he may not act in the best interests of the Ukrainian people. Harris is likely to follow Biden’s strategy of supporting the Zelensky government without actively staging an invasion using US or NATO troops.
With just a few weeks to go, governments around the world will be bracing for the American people’s decision and the impact it may have on international conflicts.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in the final leg of the election race, with just a few points separating them in the polls.
While Harris has staged an impressive ascent since announcing her candidacy, Trump appears to be resilient in some quarters, and an easy victory for the Democrats should not be assumed.
Whoever wins the election will need to take decisive action to end the wars in Israel and Ukraine. Trump is likely to pursue a personal solution, leveraging his relationships with world leaders, while Harris is likely to push for a peaceful resolution in line with existing US policy.
