The Pew Research Center has published important findings about Black eligible voters in the 2024 election and their potential impact on key races, including the U.S. presidential election.
Projected to reach 34.4 million in November 2024, the number of Black-eligible voters in the United States has experienced modest growth over several years. Notably, their turnout rates surpass those of Latino and Asian eligible voters.
A chart indicates that the Black-eligible voter population in the U.S. is expected to increase to 34.4 million in 2024, a 7% rise from 2020.
In the 2020 election, 92% of single-race Black, non-Hispanic voters supported Democrat Joe Biden, while only 8% voted for Republican Donald Trump, as per a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters.
With the 2024 presidential election approaching, here are five key facts about Black eligible voters in the U.S., based on projections for 2024 and Census Bureau data from previous years. (In this analysis, eligible voters are defined as citizens aged 18 and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. It’s important to note that not all eligible voters are registered. Detailed demographic information about Black eligible voters can be found in the drop-down box at the bottom of this post.)
Black Americans are expected to comprise 14.0% of eligible voters in the U.S. in November, according to projections from the Pew Research Center. This percentage has slowly increased over the past two decades; for instance, Black voters accounted for 13.2% of all eligible voters in 2012 and 13.5% in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
A line and bar chart show that Black Americans are projected to make up 14% of U.S. eligible voters in 2024, maintaining a similar proportion to previous years.
Meanwhile, the number of Black eligible voters has steadily increased. Between 2020 and 2024, it is estimated to have grown by 7.1%, a slower rate compared to Asian (15.3%) and Hispanic (12.1%) eligible voters.
As of 2022, about half of Black eligible voters resided in eight states. Texas had the largest number (2.9 million), followed by Georgia and Florida (2.6 million each). New York (2.4 million), California (2.0 million), North Carolina (1.8 million), and Maryland and Illinois (1.4 million each) complete the top eight. These states collectively represent 52% of Black eligible voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
In 2022, Texas had the highest number of Black eligible voters, while the District of Columbia had the highest proportion. Black voters constituted nearly half (45%) of all eligible voters in the District of Columbia, a greater share than in any state. Other areas with significant proportions of Black eligible voters include Mississippi (37%), Georgia (33%), Maryland (33%), and Louisiana (32%).
The District of Columbia and Southern states have the highest percentages of Black eligible voters. More than half (57%) reside in Southern states, followed by the Midwest (17%) and Northeast (16%). The West has a relatively small proportion (10%).
Approximately seven out of ten Black individuals in the U.S. are eligible to vote, a higher proportion than among Hispanics and Asian Americans. This is due to a high percentage being aged 18 and over (73%) and a larger percentage being citizens (96%).
However, the percentage of Black individuals eligible to vote varies widely by state. For example, 74% of Black residents in Alabama, D.C., and South Carolina are eligible, compared to less than 60% in Minnesota (55%), Utah (55%), and Iowa (53%).
Black eligible voters differ from the overall eligible voter population in terms of age, education, and other factors. About one in four (23%) Black eligible voters have a bachelor’s degree, lower than the 33% among all U.S. adults eligible to vote. Another 34% have some college education or an associate degree, while the remaining 43% have a high school diploma or less, compared with 36% of all eligible voters.
Furthermore, Black eligible voters are more likely to be women and tend to be younger than the overall eligible voter population: 60% are under the age of 50, compared to 52% of all U.S. eligible voters.
