On November 5th, 2024, the Democratic Party experienced a devastating defeat in the presidential election, with Donald Trump securing a decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. The loss was so profound that it prompted four-time presidential candidate Ralph Nadler to describe it as “The Collapse of the Democratic Party.” MSNBC hosts “The ReidOut“, Joy Reid joined Winwithblackwomen on Sunday night to critically examine and uncover the truth behind the numbers, following the Donald Trump win. Here are my main takeaways from what happened in this race.
First, Republicans caught up in early voting. Typically, Democrats dominate early voting, but that didn’t happen this time—Republicans actually closed the gap. The reason is that the Trump campaign, unlike in previous years, changed tactics. Instead of discouraging early voting and claiming that mail-in voting and drop boxes were inherently fraudulent, Trump encouraged his supporters to vote early. This led to Republicans matching and, in some states, even exceeding Democrats in early voting. As a result, Democrats had to outperform on Election Day to make up the difference.
Another factor is that mail-in voting, which Democrats have traditionally excelled at, was down significantly. Why? Because we’re no longer in the pandemic. In 2020, record voter turnout was driven largely by mail-in votes since everyone was at home and able to vote from home. Even states that don’t typically allow widespread mail-in voting, like Pennsylvania and New York, made it available. That surge in mail-in voting was one of the reasons election reformers advocate for universal mail-in voting; it’s simply easier, and more people are able to do research and vote from home.
So, that historically high mail-in vote turnout from 2020 couldn’t be matched in a year where mail-in voting had dropped considerably, and more people opted to vote early or on Election Day. Essentially, Democrats lost their mail-in voting advantage, while Republicans performed strongly on Election Day. Additionally, Republicans bypassed traditional media in favor of a new strategy. They didn’t focus on door-knocking or phone banks, like the Democrats. Instead, Republicans took to podcasts and social media, placing Trump on popular podcasts, especially those listened to by lower-propensity voters, including some Black and Latino men. This strategy helped reach voters that Trump’s team knew they needed to mobilize.
Trump’s campaign also ran a paid social media strategy, which Democrats lacked. He paid influencers on TikTok, Instagram, and X (formerly Twitter) to continuously promote his message, which helped boost his share among white men and women. White women, for example, make up only 30% of the population, but they were 37% of the electorate. Meanwhile, approximately 7% of Democratic voters simply stayed home, and Democratic low-propensity voters didn’t turn out.
Here’s a quick comparison of early voting numbers: In 2020, Democrats had 9.1 million early voters, Republicans had 8.7 million, and unaffiliated voters were at 2.1 million. In 2024, Democrats had 7.9 million early voters, Republicans were right behind with 7.6 million, and unaffiliated voters totaled 1.8 million. The total early vote count dropped from 20 million in 2020 to 17 million in 2024, meaning both sides had to make up for this on Election Day.
In Georgia, for instance, Kamala Harris maintained the same mail-in voting lead that Biden had, with a 30-point lead among mail voters. She narrowed the in-person voting margin that Trump had previously won by six points to just three. However, the mail-in portion of the vote dropped from 25% to just 5%. So, Democrats’ early voting advantages, particularly in mail-in and in-person early voting, were significantly reduced. In 2020, combined early voting reached 101 million votes, but many people returned to in-person voting this year.
Kamala Harris matched Biden’s 2020 vote totals in most swing states. If Trump had merely matched his 2020 performance, he would have lost. For example, in Wisconsin, Harris received 37,000 more votes than Biden, but Trump added 77,000 more votes compared to his 2020 total. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris essentially matched Biden’s 2020 numbers, but Trump gained 151,000 additional votes in Michigan and 108,000 more in Pennsylvania. In Georgia, Harris received 2.54 million votes, slightly more than Biden’s 2020 total, but Trump gained an extra 200,000 votes.
The bottom line is that Harris didn’t underperform; she met or even exceeded Biden’s numbers in some areas. However, Trump outperformed his previous totals. There were even instances where some voters didn’t vote at the top of the ticket but supported down-ballot Democratic candidates, which may indicate a form of protest or other reasons that need to be analyzed further. Trump’s campaign also attracted voters who supported him but didn’t necessarily vote for other Republican candidates down-ballot.
Moreover, there’s an important observation: Voters simply didn’t believe the economy was in a good state, at least not for them. A majority trusted Trump more to improve the economy and didn’t blame him for the economic fallout of COVID-19. Despite his association with taking away abortion rights or January 6th, many didn’t believe he’d make things worse. Democratic turnout was only moderate, with about 7% of their base not voting, while Republicans matched early votes and outperformed on Election Day. Harris’s campaign relied on traditional strategies, while Republicans innovated with podcasts and social media.
And lastly, there was a global trend where incumbent parties faced significant losses across various countries, and the U.S. was part of that trend.
Two more factors that impacted the race:
1. Religion: Every major Christian group in America—Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, and other Christians—went for Trump, especially among white Christians. The more often white Christians attended church, the more likely they were to vote Republican. Among Black Christians, the opposite was true: frequent churchgoers leaned more Democratic.
2. Misinformation: A significant factor in this election was misinformation. If you answered certain questions incorrectly, you were more likely to vote Republican. For example, questions about whether violent crime rates were at record highs, whether inflation was down, whether the stock market was near an all-time high, and whether unauthorized border crossings were down. Those who got these facts wrong tended to vote Republican.
Harris lost out to those swayed by misinformation. Minority voter turnout was low, and White voter turnout was high.
